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Market Commentary by TopAg.net:
(Daily Grain Prices Below)

Date: March 12, 2010
Headline: Closing Grain Comments
Comments: Supported by firm crude oil prices, sharp losses in the dollar, & USDA reports that China had bought old-crop US soybeans & S Korea had purchased US corn, grains markets opened modestly higher this morning. The rally quickly faded. Shortly after the open, USDA corrected its earlier announcement, saying China bought 8.083 mb of new-crop beans--not old-crop. That revision quickly stung soybeans & spilled over to weigh on corn & wheat, too. Crude oil also reversed during the session, turning an 8 am $1 gain to a noon hour $1 loss. When corn & wheat successfully held above mid-week lows by noon, those contracts rallied into the close. With solid harvest progress is expected in Brazil this weekend, soybeans stayed under pressure. May corn futures settled a penny lower, May soybeans declined 5c & May CBOT wheat gained 6.5c on Friday.

March CBOT grain futures contracts expired quietly at noon today, & May contracts will become lead option on Monday. For the week, nearby corn charts lost 10.75c, soybeans declined 8.75c & wheat lost a dime.

This morning's USDA Chinese bean announcement had raised eyebrows. Just yesterday, USDA had reported that China had cancelled 7.069 mb of old-crop US soybeans on last week's higher prices. Since canceling an order causes price penalties, traders were perplexed by why China would "Buy High" to exit an old-crop purchase on last week's rally & then re-own old-crop beans this week. USDA's correction to the original announcement resolved the issue.

Looking ahead to next week, weather forecasts will increasingly play a role in price direction. This afternoon's NWS 6-10 & 8-14 day forecasts look cooler & wetter than normal for most of the Corn Belt & the still snow-bound northern Plains. Wet weather has already delayed the start to corn planting in the South. Ahead of Monday's open, trade analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Assn. to report its members crushed 144.7 mb of soybeans in February. Near-record high US soybean crush rates will slow dramatically once export demand slips later this spring.

Basis was a penny lower on corn & wheat on Friday, but quick ship bids for next week boosted soybean basis by 6c this afternoon. Brazil & Argentina may produce nearly 40% more beans this year, but they didn't improve their port capacity by the same degree. Ships are now waiting about 20 days to be loaded at Brazilian ports. That's likely to get worse before it gets better. This week's basis bounce on soybeans reflects ongoing world demand & the fact that the US has plenty of shipping capacity. For the week local cash corn declined 9c, nearby soybeans edged 3c lower, & spot wheat prices crumbled 18c.

Would you like CBOT futures prices reported to your phone? Top Ag can send you nearby & harvest futures prices for corn, soybeans & wheat at 9:45 am, 11:15 am & 1:45 pm each day. We provide the service for free, but you may have to pay for text messages--depending upon your phone plan. Give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & we'll get you set up!

"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.



Your Daily Grain Prices for : 3/12/10
Commodity/Location Cash Price New Crop Jan. 2011
Wheat:
Addieville $ 3.69 $ X.xx $ X.xx
Mascoutah same as above same as above same as above
Okawville same as above same as above same as above
Pierron same as above same as above same as above
St. Libory same as above same as above same as above
Trenton same as above same as above same as above
Corn:
Addieville $ 3.38 $ 3.50 $ 3.58
Okawville same as above same as above same as above
Pierron same as above same as above same as above
St. Libory same as above same as above same as above
Trenton same as above same as above same as above
Soybeans:
Addieville $ 9.33 $ 8.61 $ 8.87
Okawville same as above same as above same as above
Pierron same as above same as above same as above
St. Libory same as above same as above same as above
Trenton same as above same as above same as above
PRICES ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. PLEASE CONTACT SCOTT, MIKE or SETH FOR PRICE QUOTES FOR DIRECT DELIVERY TO RIVER TERMINALS or PICKED UP AT YOUR BIN or FIELD. CALL US WITH YOUR PRICING OFFERS!!!!
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